The Case for the Defence

Well, since the last time I wrote on here about City, which was the 3-2 loss at home to QPR, we have had some real ups and quite recently some quite worrying downs. After that defeat which I attempted to analyse, things did start to pick up again and I would say from Nottingham Forest away until Sheffield Wednesday away there were a fair few reasons for City fans to be optimistic. That would be excluding the obvious of Forest at home and Barnsley away, both of which did really not showcase The Tigers favourably. In that time though we showed some extremely convincing performances against Derby, Fulham, Preston and Birmingham. But ever since we returned to the KCOM, following an encouraging run of away wins against QPR, Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham in the cup, the feel-good factor that the club was starting to rebuild has been slowly crumbling. This is due to some poor showings against the likes of Fulham, Brentford and Blackburn which have left many feeling pessimistic and now considering relegation as a possible outcome of the season. What I am going to attempt to do is provide some plausible reasons as to why the play-off surge came to a sudden halt, and whilst Grant hates excuses being made I really do think that the major thing I am going to mention is no doubt having a humongous impact on the performances Hull City are putting in. For me the problem at the moment is that we are not using a consistent defence, which is because of the massive amount of injuries we are suffering from. And so along with some stats that I have worked out, I am going to provide a sliver of hope for you City fans out there.
Now before I do this, I am going to put out a couple of disclaimers! First off, I am going to be referring to the ‘consistent back four’ of Elder, De Wijs, Burke and Lichaj, as this was the back four that was kept throughout the period I referred to earlier. Now I am not trying to argue the case for individuals here, instead just how vital I think it is to maintain that same back four for as long as we can. So, I will not be arguing the case for Lichaj or Pennington, although I personally do think Pennington is a better player, nor will I be addressing the Burke or Tafazolli/McLoughlin situation as that is not the aim of this blog. Also, I am not trying to say that once we start playing a consistent back four all of our problems will be solved nor am I trying to fully excuse any of the slightly poorer performances of late, just providing some contributing factors. Anways let’s get on with some evidence that shows just how important keeping the same back four has been for us. 

So at the start of the season we had a period of around 12 games where we had various combinations of a back four. This included a string at the very beginning with Kingsley in at left back resulting in a win, a loss and a draw. Then we went into the next five games with a defence that was never the same for more than one match, seeing the likes of Pennington, McKenzie, Lopes and Tafazolli feature, and here we got one win, two draws and two losses. Then in the last section of those twelve matches we had a run with Fleming in at left back, giving us another win, draw and loss, followed by one match with Tafazolli called in to replace an injured De Wijs. So in these 12 games at the beginning of the season 42% of our matches were losses, and this occurred whilst using a frequently changing defence. 
Everyone ready for some more optimistic stats? Yes, me too, let’s do that! So, after those twelve matches we conveniently had a run with a consistent back four which lasted, guess what, twelve games! (Thank you for making it easier for me to do this comparison City, much appreciated.) This run of twelve games began with Nottingham Forest away, and I did not realise this until now, haha, well it ended with Nottingham Forest at home coincidently. Here, 50% of our matches were wins, compared to 25% in the previous run of matches. When you look at losses the number went down to 33% out of the twelve matches, and whilst that does not seem like a massive difference to the twelve games prior, trust me there is more to add to my case. For six of these games we were able to keep the back four of Elder, De Wijs, Burke and Lichaj, all on the pitch for the entire ninety minutes without any injuries, hurrah. So, when all of this back four stayed on, we won 83% of our matches. However, if one of those four was subbed off, happening six times also, this had a seriously negative impact on the result of the match. Apart from when De Wijs was subbed off against Forest and we managed to hang on 2-1 to get the win, every time one of the back four came off, which happened to always be Elder, the game always resulted in a loss or a draw. To summarise that, in the six games where our back four was altered mid game, 50% of our games ended in a loss, with only a single win in those circumstances. To me, this all seems pretty conclusive as it just shows that when we keep a consistent back four, our results are better, and when we can keep that back four on for the whole game, this is when our best performances come. You might want to say that this is because of easier opposition, but considering some of those wins with this unchanged back four came against the likes of Fulham and Preston that is clearly not the case.  

After the loss at home to Forest, this is when the injuries began to fall with Elder being the first victim, with his injury lasting three games. Luckily though we had the trusty Pennington to win us over with his convincing right back performances. Here saw the time we came closest to the play offs, being just one point off after Wednesday, helped by a win against QPR just before as well. But sadly, Fulham at home was the last time we got to see a defence that had played together for even just a couple of games on the trot.  As then the luck of De Wijs, then Pennington, then Elder, then Burke, then Tafazolli and then Lichaj began to not just fall but absolutely plummet. This left us with about two recognisable centre backs, one of which most City fans could not even recognise if they fell over him, sorry Andy Smith. So, whilst we have been having this extremely inconsistent back four we have had zero wins and 67% losses, which is really not a pretty statistic. 
In my opinion the sooner we can get back to having a consistent defence, whoever you want to argue that should be, the better, as this seems to be when we are at our best, both results and performances wise. I will quickly add in that I would like to see the season out with Elder, De Wijs, Burke and Pennington, and whilst many say they would like to see Tafazolli in instead of Burke, I do think the combination of De Wijs and Burke does just work so well. 

Obviously football is rarely this straightforward: I am simply trying to provide a slight bit of optimism for when we get our defence back, at a time where lots of people are looking down! However, with reference to my previous City blog, ‘Jordy, we missen je!’, it does seem awfully straightforward!

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